## How to Find Underrated People on Twitter with TURI (Twitter Underrated Index)

One of the best skills that you can develop is the ability to find talented people before anyone else does.

This great advice from Tyler Cowen (economist and blogger at Marginal Revolution) got me thinking: What are some strategies for finding talented but underrated people?

One possible source is Twitter. For a long time, I didn’t “get” Twitter, but after following Michael Nielsen’s advice I’m officially a convert. The key is carefully selecting the list of people you follow. If you do this well, your Twitter feed becomes a constant stream of valuable information and interesting people.

If you look carefully, you can find a lot of highly underrated people on Twitter, i.e. incredibly smart people that put out valuable and interesting content, but have a smaller following that you would expect.

These are the kinds of people that are the best to follow: you get access to insights that a lot of other people are not getting (since not many people are following them), and they are more likely to respond to queries or engage in discussion (since they have a smaller following to manage).

One option for finding these people is trial and error, but I wanted to see if it’s possible to quantify how underrated people are on Twitter and automate the process for finding good people to follow.

I call this the TURI (Twitter Underrated Index), because hey, it needs a name and acronyms make things sound so official.

### Components of TURI

The index has three main components: Growth, Influence of Followers, and the Number of Followers.

Growth (G): The number of followers a user has per unit of content they have published (i.e. per tweet).

A user that is growing their Twitter following quickly suggests that they are underrated. It implies they are putting out quality content and people are starting to notice rapidly. The way I measure this is the number of followers a person acquires per Tweet.

Another possible measurement of growth is the number of followers the user has acquired per unit of time (i.e. number of followers divided by the length of time the Twitter account has existed). However, there are a couple of problems with this option:

• Twitter accounts can be dormant for years. For example, someone might start an account but not tweet for 5 years and then put out great content. Measuring growth in terms of time would unfairly punish these people.
• A person may have a strategy of Tweeting constantly. Some of the content results in followers, but the overall quality is still low. We are looking for people that publish great content, not necessarily people that put out a lot of content.

Influence of Followers (IF): The average number of the user’s follower’s followers.

In my opinion, the influence of a person’s following is the most important factor determining whether they are underrated on Twitter. Here’s a few reasons why:

• Influential people are, on average, better judges of good content.
• Influential people are more selective in who they decide to follow, especially if Twitter is an important part of their online “brand”.
• Influential people tend to engage with or are in some way related to other high quality people in their offline personal lives, and these people are more likely to appear in their Twitter feed even if they are not widely known or appreciated yet.

I’m somewhat biased toward this measure because, from my own personal experience, it has worked out really well when I browse through people who are followed by influential people on my feed. If I see someone followed by Tyler Cowen, Alex Tabarrok, Russ Roberts, Patrick Collison, and Marc Andreessen, and yet they only have 5,000 followers, then I’m pretty confident that person is currently underrated.

After some consideration, I believe the best way to measure the influence of a user’s followers with the data available in the Twitter API is taking the average number of the user’s follower’s followers.

I mulled over the possibility of using the median rather than the average, but decided against it: If someone with 1 million followers follows someone with 50 followers, I want to know more about that person, even though their TURI is high only because of that one highly influential follower. Outliers are good – we’re looking for diamonds in the rough.

Total Number of Followers (NF): The total number of followers the user currently has.

Our very definition of “underrated” in this context is when a user does not have as many followers as you expect, so total number of followers is obviously going to play an important role in TURI.

So to summarize the main idea behind TURI: if a person has a large number of “influential” followers, is growing their number of followers quickly relative to the volume of content they put out, and they still have a small number of total followers, then they are likely underrated.

### Defining the Index

For any user i, we can calculate their Twitter Underrated Index (TURI) as:

$TURI_i = \frac{G_iIF_i}{NF_i}$

Where G is growth, IF is influence of followers, and NF is the number of followers.

This formula has the general relationships we are looking for: high growth in users for each unit of content, highly influential followers, and a low number of total followers all push TURI upward.

We can simplify the equation by rewriting G = NF / T, where T is the total number of tweets for the user. Cancelling out some terms, this gives us our final version of the index:

$TURI_i = \frac{IF_i}{T_i}$

In other words, our index of how under-rated a person is on twitter is given by the average number of i’s followers followers per tweet of user i.

Before calculating TURI for a group of users, there are a couple of pre-processing steps you will likely want to take to improve the results:

1. Filter out verified accounts. One of the shortcomings of TURI is that a user’s growth / trajectory (i.e. G) will be very high if they are already a celebrity. These people typically have a large number of followers per Tweet not because of the content they put out, but because they’ve attained fame already elsewhere. Luckily, Twitter has a feature called a “verified account”, which applies “if it is determined to be an account of public interest. Typically this includes accounts maintained by users in music, acting, fashion, government, politics, religion, journalism, media, sports, business, and other key interest areas”. This is a prime group to filter out, because we are not looking for well-known people.
2. Filter users by number of followers: There are a few reasons why you might want to only calculate TURI for users that have a following within some range (e.g. between 500 and 1,000):
• Although there may be situations where a person with 500,000 followers is underrated, but this seems unlikely to be the kind of person you’re looking for so not worth the API resources.
• Filtering by some upper follower threshold mitigates the risk of including celebrities without verified accounts.
• You limit the number of calls you make to the API. The most costly operation in terms of API calls is figuring out the influence of followers. The more followers a person has, the more API calls required to calculate TURI.

### Trying out TURI

To test out the index, I calculated its value on a subset of 49 people that Tyler Cowen follows who have 1,000 or fewer followers (Tyler blogs at my favourite blog, inspired this project, and has good taste in people to follow).

The graph below illustrates TURI for these users (not including 4 accounts that were not accessible due to privacy settings).

As you can see, one user (@xgabaix) is a significant outlier. Looking a bit more closely at the profile, this is Xavier Gabaix, a well known economist at Harvard University. His TURI is so high because he has several very influential followers and he has not tweeted yet.

So did TURI fail here? I don’t think so, since this is very likely someone to follow if he was actually Tweeting. However, it does seem a little strange to put someone at the top of the list that doesn’t actually have any Twitter content.

So, I filtered again for users that have published at least 20 tweets:

The following chart looks solely at the various user’s IF (Influence of their Followers). Interestingly, another user @shanagement has the most influential followers by far. However, they rank in third place for overall TURI since they tweet significantly more than @davidbrooks13 or @davidhgillen.

### Limitations

Of course, TURI has some shortcomings:

• Difficult to tell how well TURI works: The measures are based on intuition and there is obviously no “ground truth” data about how underrated twitter users actually are. So, we don’t really have a data-based method for seeing how well the index works and improving it systematically. For example, you might question is whether Growth G should be included in the index at all. I think there’s a good argument for it: if people get followers quickly per unit of content there must be something about that content that draws others. But, on the other hand, maybe they aren’t truly underrated. Maybe the truly underrated people have good content but your average Twitter user underestimates them even after reading a few posts. People don’t always know high quality when the see it.
• It takes a fairly long time to calculate TURI: This is due to Twitter rate limits of API requests. For example, calculating TURI for 49 Twitter users above took about an hour. It would take even longer for people with larger followings (remember, I only focused on people with 1,000 or fewer followers). So, if you want to do a large batch of people, it’s probably a good idea run this on a server on an ongoing basis and store user and TURI information into a database.

### Other ideas?

There are many many different ways you could potentially specify an index like this. Leave a comment or reach out to me on Twitter or email if you have any suggestions.

One other possible tweak is accounting for the number of people that the user follows. I notice that some Twitter users seem to have a strategy of following a huge number of people in the hopes of being followed back. In these cases, their following strategy may be the cause of their high growth and not the quality of their content. One solution is to adjust the TURI by multiplying by (Number of User’s Followers) / (Number of People the User Follows). This would penalize people that, for example, have 15,000 followers but follow 15,000 people themselves.

### Technical Details

You can find the code I used to interact with the API and calculate TURI here. The code uses the python-twitter package, which provides a nice way of interacting with the Twitter API, abstracting away annoying details so you don’t have to deal with them (e.g. authenticating with OAuth, dealing with rate limits).

## Why Data Scientists Should Join Toastmasters

Public speaking used to be a big sore spot for me. I was able to do it, but I truly hated it and it caused me a great deal of grief. When I knew I had to speak it would basically ruin the chunk of time from when I knew I would have to speak to when I did it. And don’t get me started on impromptu speaking – whenever something like that would pop up, I would feel pure terror.

Things got a bit better once I entered the working world and had to speak somewhat regularly, giving presentations to clients and staff and participating in meetings. But still, I hated it. I thought I was no good and had a lot of anxiety associated with it.

A little over a year ago, I finally had enough and decided I needed to do something about it. I joined the Venio Dictum toastmasters group in Winnipeg. After only a few months, I started to become much more relaxed and at ease when speaking. Today, one year later, I actually look forward to giving speeches and facing the challenge of impromptu speaking. A year ago, if you told me I would feel this way now, I wouldn’t have believed you.

Imagine being the type of person that volunteers to address a crowd or give a toast off the cuff. Imagine looking forward to speaking at a wedding, meeting, or other event. Imagine being totally comfortable in one of those “networking event” situations where you enter a room crowded full of people you don’t know. A year ago, I used to think people that enjoyed this stuff were from another planet. Now, I understand this attitude and I feel like I’m getting there myself.

#### Why should a Data Scientist care about speaking skills?

• Communication is a critical part of the job

Yes, a huge part of being a data scientist is having skills in mathematics, statistics, machine learning, programming, and having domain expertise.

However, technical skills are not anywhere close to the entire picture. You might be fantastic at data analysis, but if you aren’t able to communicate your results to others, your work is basically useless. You’ll wind up producing great analysis that ultimately never get implemented or even considered at all because you failed to properly explain its value to anyone.

Speaking is a huge part of communication, so you need to be good at it (the other big area of communication is writing, but that’s a topic for another day).

To get to the next level in your career (and to get a data scientist job in the first place), it really helps to be a confident and persuasive speaker.

Job interviews are a great example. When you apply for a job, there will always be an interview component where you’ll have to speak and answer questions you have not prepared for in advance. Even if your resume and portfolio look great, it’s going to be hard for an employer to hire you if you bomb the interview.

This also applies to promotions from within your current company. Advanced positions typically require rely more on communication and management skills like speaking and less on specific technical skills.

• Network / connection building

Improved speaking doesn’t just make your presentations better: it makes your day-to-day communications with colleagues and acquaintances better too. You’ll become a better conversationalist and a better listener.

As a data scientist, you’ll likely be working with multiple teams within your organization and outside your organization. You will need to gain their trust and support, and better speaking helps you do that.

• It makes you a better thinker / learner

The motto of my toastmasters club is “better listening, thinking, and speaking” because a huge part of speaking is learning how to organize your thoughts in a clear package so they are ready for delivery to your audience. As George Horace Latimer said in his book Letters from a Self Made Man to his Merchant Son:

“There’s a vast difference between having a carload of miscellaneous facts sloshing around loose in your head and getting all mixed up in transit, and carrying the same assortment properly boxed and crated for convenient handling and immediate delivery.”

Having a lot of disparate facts in your head is not very useful if they are not organized in a way that lets you easily access them when the time is right. Preparing a speech forces you to organize your thoughts, create a coherent narrative, and understand the principles underlying the ideas that you’re trying to communicate.

This habit of understanding the underlying rules and principles behind what you learn is referred to by psychologists as “structure building” or “rule learning”. As described in the book Make it Stick, people who do this as a habit are more successful learners than people that take everything they learn at face value, never extracting principles that can be applied to new situations. Public speaking cultivates this skill.

This is particularly important for data scientists, given the incredibly diverse range of subjects we are required to develop expertise in and the constantly evolving nature of our field. To manage this firehose of information, we must have efficient learning habits.

One great thing about Toastmasters is you can give a speech on any topic you want. So go ahead, give a speech on deep reinforcement learning to help solidify your understanding of the topic (but explain in a way that your grandmother could understand).

• Speaking is a fundamental skill that will impact your life in many other ways

Speaking is a great example of a highly transferable skill that pays off no matter what you decide to do. Since it deeply pervades everything we do in our personal and professional lives, the ROI for improving is tremendous. (In my opinion, some other skills that fall into this category include writing, sales, and negotiation.)

Consider all the non-professional situations in your life where you speak to others (e.g. your spouse, kids, parents, family, acquaintances, community groups). Toastmasters will make all of these interactions more fruitful.

Suppose you decide data science isn’t right for you. Well, you can be close to 100% sure the speaking skills you develop through Toastmasters will still be valuable whatever you decide to do instead.

In terms of the 80-20 rule, working on your public speaking is definitely part of the 20% that yields 80% of the results. It’s worth your time.

#### How Does Toastmasters Work?

Although each club may do things a little differently, all use the same fundamental building blocks to make you a better speaker:

• Roles: At each meeting, there are a list of possible “roles” that you can play. Each of these roles trains you in a different public speaking skill. For example, the “grammarian” observes everyones language and eloquence, “gruntmaster” monitors all the “ums”, “uhs”, “likes”, “you knows” etc. There is a “Table Topics Master” role where you propose random questions to members they have not prepared for in advance and they have to do an impromptu speech about it for two minutes (an incredibly valuable training exercise, especially if you fear impromptu speaking). Here are the complete list of roles and descriptions of the roles in my club.
• Prepared speeches: Of course, there are also tons of opportunities to provide prepared speeches. Toastmasters provides you with manuals listing various speeches to prepare that give you practice in different aspects of public speaking. You do these speeches at your own pace.
• Evaluations: Possibly the most valuable feature of Toastmasters is that everyone’s performance is evaluated by others. In a Toastmasters group, you’ll often have a subset of members that are very skilled and experienced speakers (my club has several members that have been with the club 25+ years), and the feedback you get can be invaluable. It’s crucial for improvement, and it’s something you don’t usually get when speaking in your day-to-day life.

Go out and find a local Toastmasters group and at check it out as a guest to see how it works up close. They will be more than happy to have you. You owe it to yourself to at least give it a try. If your experience is anything like mine, you’ll be kicking yourself for not starting earlier (and by “earlier” I mean high school or even sooner – it’s definitely something I’m going to encourage my daughter to do).